Thailand pro-democracy opposition events take huge lead in election polling

Professional-democracy opposition events have taken an imposing lead in Thailand’s nationwide elections with 99 per cent of votes counted, as voters delivered a rebuke to the navy in a contest that might herald the nation’s first switch of energy for a decade.

Sunday’s election represents the strongest probability for Thai voters to reclaim management from a military-aligned authorities and halt a cycle of navy coups, violent crackdowns and political turmoil throughout which Thailand’s financial development has lagged behind that of regional neighbours.

The progressive Transfer Ahead occasion got here prime, adopted intently by the Pheu Thai occasion, Thailand’s largest opposition group, preliminary outcomes from Thailand’s Election Fee confirmed.

Pheu Thai is led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, who formally entered politics solely final yr. She is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire telecoms magnate and populist former prime minister whose elected authorities was overthrown in a navy coup in 2006.

Transfer Ahead’s share of the vote mirrored indicators of a backlash in opposition to Thailand’s deeply conservative royalist-military institution. The progressive occasion had surged in pre-election polling on enthusiasm from city and younger voters following protests in 2020. Pita Limjaroenrat, Transfer Ahead’s Harvard- and MIT-educated chief, introduced late on Sunday that he anticipated his occasion would start coalition talks with Pheu Thai.

Transfer Ahead’s supporters “have grown up in a time of political polarisation marked by protests, coups, and crackdowns”, stated Napon Jatusripitak, a analysis fellow at Singapore-based Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, saying the outcome “will give us a glimpse into whether or not there’s sufficient urge for food for change”.

Army-aligned events trailed in provisional returns. The United Thai Nation occasion, a automobile for incumbent prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, obtained solely about 12 per cent of the vote. The ruling Palang Pracharath occasion, which is led by Prayuth’s deputy and longtime mentor Prawit Wongsuwan following a schism throughout the authorities, was on 10 per cent.

Prayuth, a former navy chief who seized energy in 2014 by deposing Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra, had confronted criticism at dwelling and from some allies for repressing civil liberties and crushing the 2020 protests, which sought to curb the privileges of the monarchy, Thailand’s strongest establishment.

However the navy maintains a big benefit beneath Thailand’s 2017 structure, which permits a 250-member junta-appointed senate to vote alongside the 500-seat elected decrease home on a primary minister.

One potential kingmaker is the regional populist Bhumjaithai occasion, which was third in early returns. The occasion, led by well being minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who drove the profitable marketing campaign final yr for marijuana decriminalisation, additionally tipped the scales following disputed polls in 2019, when it backed Prayuth.

The opposition is hoping an awesome margin will press the Senate to co-operate with the outcome, nevertheless it faces an uphill battle to type a authorities and closing outcomes might not be obtainable for weeks.

The specter of a navy takeover or judicial intervention to disqualify opposition candidates additionally looms: Pita is already dealing with a grievance with the election fee over his possession of shares in a broadcaster, the identical breach that led to the chief of Transfer Ahead’s precursor being banned from politics for 10 years. Two of Thaksin’s earlier events have been additionally dissolved.

Transfer Ahead’s proposals for reforming the navy and monarchy, together with the tough lèse majesté legal guidelines, are considered by the institution as “an existent menace”, based on Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Safety and Worldwide Research at Chulalongkorn College in Bangkok. “It’s going to be very tough to reform the outdated order with out some form of a confrontation.”