El Nino seen boosting U.S. cotton output after worst drought in years

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

(Reuters) – The El Nino climate sample may enhance yields within the second half of the 12 months for U.S. cotton farmers, who have been compelled to desert an enormous chunk of their cropland in 2022 after one of many worst droughts in years.

Whereas El Nino sometimes brings dry climate to Asia, with impacts already being felt in Australia, Indonesia and India, it’s identified for moist climate in elements of North and South America.

The Nationwide Climate Service has forecast a greater than 50% probability of El Nino forming in the course of the northern summer time of 2023.

“If we transfer into an El Nino sample, we might see extra rainfall within the U.S. and this is able to imply greater manufacturing, greater yields and fewer abandonment this 12 months,” mentioned Bailey Thomen, cotton danger administration affiliate at StoneX Group.

Final 12 months, greater than three-quarters of Texas, which accounts for about 40% of U.S. cotton output, suffered from one of many worst droughts in years.

Consequently, U.S. farmers have been compelled to desert a file quantity of their land, with the resultant provide shortfall driving costs to an 11-year peak in Might.  

“Final 12 months, Texas had nearly 70% abandonment as a result of drought,” the Texas Farm Bureau mentioned.

Nonetheless, an excessive amount of rainfall might show to be a spoilsport, resulting in yield losses and high quality downgrades.

“Probably the most essential half will probably be when the rains arrive. Will probably be nice in the event that they arrive by April-Might,” Kansas-based commodity analyst Sid Love mentioned.

Expectations of upper U.S. cotton output come at a time of weakening world demand for the fiber.

Demand considerations have prompted about 6% decline in U.S. cotton futures this 12 months, and costs hit a 20-week low this week amid the continued banking sector disaster. [COT/N]

The USDA lowered its 2022/23 world cotton consumption estimates to 110.11 million bales in March, from 110.66 million bales forecast a month in the past.

The market will probably be extremely depending on what occurs with the worldwide economic system, mentioned Matthew Looney, information scientist at Worldwide Cotton Advisory Committee, predicting consumption would stay low into the 2023/24 season.

“China’s restoration is a optimistic signal whereas the continued banking disaster poses financial dangers which may weigh on demand,” mentioned Jim Nunn, proprietor of Tennessee-based cotton brokerage Nunn Cotton.